FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Big Ten college football conference preview: Can Penn State or Ohio State stop Michigan?

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centerpower in the Big Ten has shifted in the last two seasons with Michigan supplanting Ohio State as the league's top team. This comes after the Buckeyes had ruled the conference for the previous four seasons and Penn State for one season before that, giving the East Division seven consecutive wins in the conference championship game.

Those three teams will enter the season ranked in the top 10 of the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll, but that doesn't mean there won't be a competition from the other division. Wisconsin is optimistic about a fast turnaround while breaking in a new coach and quarterback. Iowa is another potential contender with Michigan transfer Cade McNamara finally giving the Hawkeyes a leader on offense that can put up points consistently.

A breakdown of the top contenders entering the season.

Big Ten East

1. Michigan

Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines firmly believe the 2023 team will win the whole thing. The pieces are in place, particularly on the offensive side. Explosive running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards return and will again be working behind an outstanding group of blockers. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy also returns. There will be new starters along the defensive line and in the secondary, but veterans Junior Colson and Michael Barrett will be joined by Nebraska transfer Ernest Hausmann to form one of the nation’s top linebacker units.

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2. Ohio State

It’s easy to forget the Buckeyes could’ve, or even should’ve, topped Georgia in the 42-41 semifinal loss. This year’s team will have to stand up to Michigan’s toughness but is built to win the title. Scoring points should not be an issue, even with a new signal-caller – likely Kyle McCord or Devin Brown – taking over for C.J. Stroud. Marvin Harrison Jr. will lead an elite receiving unit that also features tight end Cade Stover. J.T. Tuimoloau looks to be next in the long line of highly drafted Buckeyes rush ends, and Tommy Eichenberg will again be the linchpin at linebacker.

3. Penn State

The Nittany Lions took care of everyone on their schedule not named Michigan or Ohio State in 2022. Obviously, they’ll have to change that. The keys to the offense belong to prized prospect Drew Allar. His primary targets are talented but unproven at the Power Five level. But they’ll have help in the form of Nicholas Singleton leading a deep running back corps and a veteran line featuring Olu Fashanu at left tackle. The defense, which was the best in the Big Ten in several categories, must replace some key parts, but edge Abdul Carter is back to lead what should be a formidable pass rush.

4. Maryland

Mike Locksley has started talking about winning a Big Ten championship, and it’s easy to see why. The Terrapins have put together a consistently strong offense and just need depth and experience on defense to possibly take the next step.

5. Michigan State

The baseline should be set at six wins. But would just reaching a bowl be enough to get coach Mel Tucker’s tenure back on track after a disappointing 2022? It’s good to see the talent Tucker has accumulated on the defense, but how this offense will fare is almost anyone’s guess.

6. Rutgers

Getting projected starting quarterback Gavin Wimsatt on track isn’t the only item on offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca’s to-do list. As he gets set for his turn under Greg Schiano, Ciarrocca also has to help Rutgers identify two or three new receivers and rebuild things in the trenches.

7. Indiana

After winning just six games the past two years, Indiana has hopes of getting back to a bowl but they hinge on toss-up games that mostly come on the road. While drawing Rutgers and Michigan State in Bloomington, the Hoosiers will play at Louisville, Maryland, Illinois and Purdue.

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Big Ten West

1. Iowa

The offense could, in fact, get worse – Iowa could average, say, one touchdown a game instead of the normal two. But could the Hawkeyes be better? There’s almost no doubt. Look for Michigan transfer quarterback Cade McNamara to build up this underachieving group.

2. Wisconsin

Wisconsin will be home to one of this college football season’s most intriguing mixes. New head coach Luke Fickell is trying to blend the Badgers’ normal physicality with an offensive scheme containing Air Raid principles. Offensive coordinator Phil Longo is maybe the most impactful new assistant in the conference.

3. Minnesota

Minnesota wants more balance on offense but may have to lean more on projected starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis given the big changes underway along the interior of the offensive line. If that group rounds into form, look for Western Michigan running back transfer Sean Tyler to challenge for 1,000 yards after hitting that mark in each of the past two years.

4. Illinois

Illinois’ addition of former Wisconsin interim coach Jim Leonhard could be an under-the-radar factor in determining the Big Ten West. His experience in the league and track record on defense will undoubtedly give the Illini a big boost.

5. Nebraska

The Matt Rhule era begins with long-term optimism but realistic expectations for 2023. While Rhule and the staff would love to get the Cornhuskers to the postseason, that depends on the play of new quarterback Jeff Sims and whether the defense has the personnel to run the new 3-3-5 scheme.

6. Purdue

New coach Ryan Walters will leave the offense to coordinator Graham Harrell and take charge of a defense that needs his help. After turning Illinois into one of the best units in the Big Ten last season, Walters will lean on defensive line transfers from the SEC to stop the run.

7. Northwestern

Pegged for a last-place finish even before this summer’s coaching shake-up, Northwestern could find it even more difficult to rise out of the cellar under interim coach David Braun. But he’ll bring this defense up to speed after four very successful seasons running that side of the ball for Football Championship Subdivision powerhouse North Dakota State.

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